Quantum computing is an emerging technology with potentially far-reaching implications for national prosperity and security. The maturity of currently-available quantum computers is not yet at a level such that they can be used in production for large-scale, industrially-relevant problems, and they are not believed to currently pose security risks. However, four trends — new algorithms, error mitigation, circuit knitting, and the commercial exploration of business-relevant quantum applications — may enable useful and practical quantum computing in the near future. At the same time, these trends are unlikely to affect the feasibility of using quantum computers for cryptanalysis. Given this, there is a credible expectation that quantum computers will be capable of performing computations which are economically-impactful before they will be capable of performing ones which are cryptographically-relevant.

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